:: Closing Time ::

:: Thursday, March 27, 2003 ::

In response to a prediction made by a guy on a board I post on: "but it still all comes down to pitching. therefore i think the A's are gonna be a power house. "


He's right in that it comes down to pitching - like the Superbowl, and the 2001 World Series, superior defense will nearly ALWAYS win. But I think he's wrong that the A's are going to be a power house.

I'm stepping on some hallowed grounds by saying this... but I simply do not believe the A's staff is as good as everyone says they are. Look at three major facts:

1) The first is that Billy Koch had an absurd 11 wins last year. I think only about half of those were blown saves, which means he was used in non-save situations - not a travesty, even with the current closer policy most teams use. They used the closer to stop the bleeding though [i]when another reliever, or the starter, had gotten behind[/i]. This doesn't say a whole lot of good for the rest of the A's staff.

2) The second is that while the A's triumvirate have all had pretty good years three years in a row, each one has only had one REALLY good year. Compare that to pitching staffs like NYY, or Atlanta, or Arizona, or Boston, and it just doesn't hold water. Want a fair example? Add up Pedro Martinez, Dereck Lowe, and Tim Wakefield against Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Last year the A's Trio notched only 3 wins more than the Boston trio... [i]in 22 more starts.[/i] But ok, wins can be affected by run support, and relievers (not like Boston was known for it's sparkling pen last year...). So let's look at a more personal statistic: ERA. Last year, Pedro DLowe and Waker notched 1, 2, and 4 in the AL in ERA. Only Barry Zito, the ace of the Oakland squad, earned fewer runs on average the number 3 guy in Boston.

3) And now, the real controversy: I simply do not believe the AL west is the hot division it is because of solid baseball. Look at the AL West from the standpoint a pitcher does: an offensive one. The greatest threat to a pitcher's ERA comes from the Texas Rangers - the LEAST likely threat to a pitcher's W-L count, because of their abysmal pitching. So it's a win-win for pitchers in the AL west. Wanna talk about the Mariners? Well, even if you don't ignore 2001, there was still nothing spectacular about them except what the Angels did this year: consistancy. But if the A's pitching squad is so dominating, why didn't they beat "consistant" hitters? Two of the three most dangerous hitters to pass through the AL west recently, Giambi and Tejada vs. A-Rod, played -with- the A's and not against them. Run support without cutting their ERA. The A's staff didn't have to play the Yankees 20 times in a season. The AL west, for good pitching, is a cake walk. The A's pitchers simply aren't as good as everybody makes them out to be.

That's the end of my rant on the A's.
:: Peter 1:55 AM [+] ::
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