:: Closing Time ::

:: Tuesday, February 25, 2003 ::

I'd just like to illustrate and interesting Catch-22 the US has built either intentionally or unintentionally, depending on how much credit you give our administration, to ensure the war in Iraq goes through.

1) Bush has made it emminently clear that he's attacking Iraq unless Saddam leaves into exile and basically hands over his country. In the history of the world I don't think -any- leader has ever done this. So basically, Bush has said he's going in guns blazing regardless of what happens.

2) This said, Saddam needs to mobilize his troops and air defenses for a war. Although none of us like the concept of him shooting back at our American forces, it's going to happen - and this time, be cause Saddam knows it's all or nothing now, it's gonna happen HARDER than in the first gulf war, which is what everone's been quoting as a source to say we'll have few American casualities. We're going to see suicide bombers going at American troops, at American SHIPS, and if they can muster the air power, kamikazes. If we wanted to build a link between Iraq and Al-Qaeda well... we've built it, because we've offered Saddam no choice but to turn to terrorists to kill American soldiers.

3) And that no choice is the new missiles we've found, which are legally within the restrictions placed on Saddam after the first gulf war, and are an integral part of his air defense. The US wants Saddam to dismantle them - but Saddam KNOWS he's going to be attacked by the US, and isn't going to take down his air defense, especially when he knows it's legal and within the sanctions. The current party line is that the Al-Samoud2 missiles found "could potentially be modified to strike at targets outside of the legal range of his missiles." I don't know about you, but if it's so easy to modify them I'm not sure why he wouldn't have besides the fact that he umm, doesn't want to be killed.

So Saddam has two choices: disable his air defenses and then be obliterated by US forces who are going to pull a "hah hah! tricked you!" when he takes his armor off and stab him, or keep his air defenses up and go down guns blazing. I think it's pretty clear which one he's going to choose.

This war -is- going to be bloody. Much bloodier than the first Gulf War was. Anybody who says it's not possible, all you have to see is this:

The Millenium Challenge

Read the article and then as you'll see... we've already -lost- this war once.
:: Peter 1:51 PM [+] ::
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